據(jù)彭博新聞社報(bào)道，三家民間機(jī)構(gòu)（China Carbon Forum，ICF International Inc.  SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co）今年訪談了中國260位碳交易參與者，綜合總結(jié)他們的主要觀點(diǎn)和預(yù)測如下：

 

——90%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國碳排放將在2030年或之前達(dá)峰；50%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國在2025年以前就會(huì)達(dá)峰。

——50%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國的碳交易市場在2020年前就會(huì)全面實(shí)施；另有44%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國碳交易市場要到2021-2025年之間才會(huì)完善。

——95%的受訪者認(rèn)為需要國家層面的立法或者中央政府的法規(guī)來確保相關(guān)方遵守的碳交易市場規(guī)則。

——根據(jù)受訪者的預(yù)測值進(jìn)行平均，2020年中國碳交易市場碳價(jià)為人民幣74元/噸；2025年碳價(jià)為108元/噸。

——38%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國企業(yè)在2017年的項(xiàng)目投資決策會(huì)考慮碳交易市場的因素；而75%的受訪者認(rèn)為2025年投資決策將受到碳交易市場相當(dāng)程度的影響。

——2025年，中國會(huì)利用碳交易、環(huán)境稅、信息披露和能源配額交易等方式來減少排放。

——61%的受訪者認(rèn)為中國的碳市場將在2030年以前與國際碳市場銜接。

碳道根據(jù)微信公眾號(hào)“國際能源小數(shù)據(jù)”及彭博社報(bào)道綜合整理

報(bào)道原文：

China Seen Reaching Peak Carbon Emissions by 2030: Study

China’s carbon emissions will probably peak on or before 2030, a survey of industry participants found.

About 90 percent of 260 stakeholders in the nation’s carbon market gave that forecast, while more than half said the milestone would be reached by 2025 at the latest, according to the survey, which was conducted by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Inc. and SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co. between March and July.

The results underscored industry confidence in China’s efforts to meet a target of capping emissions by 2030 as the nation shifts to renewable energy and curbs coal power. The world’s biggest clean-energy investor has also pledged to start a national carbon market later this year to reduce emissions.

Almost 50 percent of participants in the survey expect China to complete the carbon market by 2020 with all key segments in place, while 44 percent anticipate that will happen between 2021 and 2025.

Among survey responses since 2013, “we saw a very consistent expectation that China’s carbon market will be fully functional around 2020,” Dimitri de Boer, vice chairman of China Carbon Forum, said at a press conference in Beijing. “This requires lots of investment in capacity building and in getting all stakeholders aligned.”

Other findings:

The average carbon price is forecast to be 74 yuan ($11) per metric ton in 2020, almost double the 38 yuan estimated in 2017. By 2025, the price may surge to 108 yuan a ton

38 percent of the stakeholders expect investment decisions in 2017 will be affected significantly or to some extent by carbon trading. The figure surges to 75 percent for 2025

Through 2025, China will shift to carbon trading, environmental taxes, information disclosure and energy-quota trading to reduce emissions

95 percent of survey participants said country-level laws or central governmental regulations are needed to maintain compliance with carbon-trading rules

61 percent of stakeholders think China’s carbon market will be linked with other international systems by 2030

— With assistance by Feifei Shen